Financial Free in the Retirement Period by Saving on Stocks

This study aims to calculate the minimum estimate of saving stocks per month to be financially free after 30 years of investing in stocks. The research method used is a quantitative method. The results showed that the estimated minimum funds to get passive income of 5 million, which is equivalent for the next 30 years, is IDR 930,936 per month.


Introduction
Many people are not financially free when they have retired from a job. Someone is said to be financially free if that person can live on passive income without the need to work. Therefore, people need to invest. One type of investment is stock investment.
Stock is a evidence of partial ownership of a company to investors or traders who invest funds in a company. One of the characteristics of shares is that the owner of the shares can earn dividends. Dividends are part of the profits that the company gets distributed to shareholders (Azis et al., 2015;Dai et al., 2020;Hughes et al., 2019).
Stocks ownership can be bought and sold, one of which is on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The share price is influenced by the volume of purchases and sales volume. If the buying volume is more than the selling volume, then the share price increases. Conversely, the volume of purchases is less than the volume of sales, the price falls. Therefore, share prices are volatile (easy to change) (Hidayat, 2011;Alessie et al., 2004;Gao et al., 2017;Jiang and Kim, 2005).
The share price is also influenced by the net profit of a company. When the net income of a company increases every year, the share price also continues to increase. If the company can increase profits every year, the shares are worth investing in for the long term (Sulisyanto, 2008;Oyedokun et al., 2019;Iyappan and Ganesamoorthy, 2020;Al Nuaimi et al., 2019).
This study aims to calculate the minimum estimate of saving stocks per month to be financially free after 30 years of investing in stocks.

Methodology
This section discusses the present value and future value, the estimated needs of a family every month, the estimated inflation every year, and the estimated stock interest earned every year.
This research uses quantitative methods. The data required in this study are the annual net profit of the BCA and BRI banks, the highest annual share value, inflation from 2015-2019, and the market capitalization of BCA and BRI banks. The research steps used are as follows: Stage 1: Present Value and Future Value Present value (PV) is the present value determined by the future value. On the other hand, the future value (FV) is the future value which is determined by the present value (Pramono, 2007;Gaspars-Wieloch, 2019;Zaree et al., 2020;Tharani and Uthayakumar, 2020). The formula for the present value is: where: i : interest rate per period n : time period

Stage 2: Estimated Needs Every Month
When you retire, it is important to know how much money you use each month to make ends meet. If the need for funds is not estimated, the pension funds will run out.
The pension fund needed by each person varies depending on the lifestyle. In this article, it is assumed that the amount of pension money (funds) for a family is IDR 5,000,000 each month (Table 1).

Stage 3: Estimated Inflation Each Year
Almost every year, Indonesia experiences inflation. Inflation is an indicator of changes in the value of a currency. For example, 10 years ago IDR 25,000 was used to buy 1.5 kg of eggs, whereas now the same amount of money is only enough to buy 1 kg of eggs. Therefore, inflation forecasts are needed to estimate the future value of the currency. The average inflation for 5 years from 2015-2019 can be seen in Table 2. From Table 2, it is found that the annual increase in inflation for the 5 years from 2015 to 2019 is 6.64%. This figure is used as the annual inflation rate for 30 years.

Stage 4: Estimated Stock Interest Earned Each Year
A company is said to be healthy when the net profit earned by the company continues to increase every year. A healthy company is expected to keep increasing share prices every year. The author uses the market capitalization indicators in selecting stocks, namely market capitalization greater than 10 trillion and stock interest greater than 15% within the first 5 years when the IPO (Initial Public Offering). Other indicators is stock interest rate.
Market capitalization is the number of shares multiplied by the share price in that company. The greater the market capitalization, the less likely one or more people will control large amounts of shares (for example 10% of market capitalization). Thus, stock prices are more stable when the market capitalization is large. The formula for finding the stock's interest value is

Results and Discussion
In this article, the highest stock price is used each year because the author tries to see the stock price when the company is performing well. The author does not estimate stock prices for the next few days or months because stock prices are strongly influenced by the number of buyers and sellers of shares.
Next, two stocks that meet the requirements were selected, namely shares of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) and PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI). The first requirement is a market capitalization of more than 10 trillion and BBCA and BBRI meet the first requirements. The market capitalization of BBCA and BBRI can be seen in Table 3. The second condition is that the stock interest rate is greater than 15% in the first five years. The stock price after five years until the share price in 2019 is used to determine the increase in share prices each year. The increase in BBCA and BBRI stock prices can be seen in Table 4 and Table 5. Based on Table 4 and Table 5, the share interest rate in the first five years for BBCA and BBRI shares is 29.59% and BBRI is 60.08%, respectively. Both figures are greater than 15%, so the second condition is met. Furthermore, the author will see if the stock price rises in the following year the company's net profit also increases. BBCA and BBRI net income can be seen in Table 6 and Table 7.
We can see that one of the criteria for selecting stocks is influenced by company profits except for BRI shares in 2008 and 2016. In 2008, BRI's highest decline in share price decreased by 10.35%. Share prices fell due to the global financial crisis (PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia, 2008). In 2016, BRI's highest share price decline decreased by 3.53%. Share prices fell because the smallest increase in net income from 2007-2019 was 2016.
Furthermore, the author will estimate the minimum amount of funds that need to be invested every month, so that someone gets a passive income of 5 million per month within 30 years.
Suppose the author takes the share price per year from 2008-2019 BRI bank is 17.8% with an inflation rate of 6.64%. Furthermore, the author will estimate the total stock fund needed for the next 30 years.
The first step, the author will estimate the total stock fund that will be taken every year after 30 years of investing in stocks.