THE GARCH MODEL VOLATILITY OF SHARIA STOCKS ASSOCIATED CAUSALITY WITH MARKET INDEX

Endang Soeryana Hasbullah; Endang Rusyaman; Alit Kartiwa

doi:10.46336/ijqrm.v1i1.3

THE GARCH MODEL VOLATILITY OF SHARIA STOCKS ASSOCIATED CAUSALITY WITH MARKET INDEX

Endang Soeryana Hasbullah, Endang Rusyaman, Alit Kartiwa

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the volatility of Islamic stocks related to the causality of the composite stock price index (CSPI). The aim is to investigate the causality of several levels of stock returns with the movement of the CSPI, and determine its volatility as a measure of risk. To determine the causality relationship is done by using the granger causality test method, with Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling. Whereas to determine the volatility is done using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastisiy (GARCH) model approach. The results of the causality test show that there is a direct relationship that affects and is influenced by the CSPI, and the relationship that affects each other between the company's stock market and the movement of the CSPI. While the volatility follows the GARCH model (1, 1). Based on the results of this study are expected to be used as consideration in making investment decisions in the analyzed stocks.

Keywords

Stock Returns; Vrenger Causality; VAR Models; GARCH Models

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.46336/ijqrm.v1i1.3