Forecasting Indonesian Stock Index Using ARMA-GARCH Model

Dwi Susanti; Kirana Fara Labitta; Sukono Sukono

doi:10.46336/ijqrm.v5i2.686

Forecasting Indonesian Stock Index Using ARMA-GARCH Model

Dwi Susanti, Kirana Fara Labitta, Sukono Sukono

Abstract

The stock market is an institution that provides a facility for buying and selling stocks. Covid-19 is an issue that has affected the stock markets of many countries, including Indonesia. Due to the pandemic, the condition of stocks before and during Covid-19 is certainly different. Stocks can be measured using stock indices. To predict future stock conditions, it is necessary to forecast the stock index. This research aims to predict the Indonesian stock index in the before and during Covid-19 period, using ARMA-GARCH time series model. According to the results obtained for before Covid-19 data, the best predictive model is the ARMA(0,2)-GARCH(1,0), and for the data during Covid-19, it is ARMA(3,3)-GARCH(3,3). Since the MAE is close to zero, it indicates that the model is quite accurate. These findings can help investors make better investment decisions in the future.

Keywords

Stock index, Covid-19, ARMA-GARCH

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.46336/ijqrm.v5i2.686