Investment Portfolio Optimization Using Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) Based on Fama-French Three Factor Model on IDX High Dividend 20 Stocks

Asthie Zaskia Maharani; Dwi Susanti; Riaman Riaman

doi:10.46336/ijqrm.v6i2.978

Investment Portfolio Optimization Using Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) Based on Fama-French Three Factor Model on IDX High Dividend 20 Stocks

Asthie Zaskia Maharani, Dwi Susanti, Riaman Riaman

Abstract

Stock investment is one of the investment options that provides both profit and risk for investors. In an effort to maximize profits and minimize risks, investors need an optimal portfolio. The optimal portfolio is a portfolio selected from a collection of efficient portfolios. To form an optimal portfolio, this study combines the Fama-French Three Factor Model (FF3FM) for stock selection and Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) for stock weight optimization in the portfolio. FF3FM considers more factors resulting in more comprehensive stock selection than other methods. While ACO has the ability to explore the solution space widely and efficiently, minimizing the risk of getting stuck on a local solution. The performance of the optimal portfolio is measured using the Sharpe Ratio which considers total risk, thus providing an overview of overall investment efficiency. The research object used is quarterly stock data on IDX High Dividend 20 from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2020-2023. Of the 20 stocks, 12 stocks were selected that were consistently included in the index during the 2020-2023 period. By selecting stocks using the FF3FM method, 10 efficient stocks were selected, namely ADRO, ASII, BBCA, BBNI, BBRI, INDF, ITMG, PTBA, TLKM, and UNTR. Portfolio optimization using ACO produces a portfolio return of 0.0473 and a risk of 0.0257 with the weight of each ADRO stock of 6.90%, BBCA of 17.24%, BBNI of 10.34%, BBRI of 27.59%, INDF of 3.45%, ITMG of 27.59%, TLKM of 3.45%, and UNTR of 3.45%. The results showed that the integration of FF3FM and ACO was able to form a portfolio with optimal performance with a Sharpe Ratio value of 1.41868, which means that the portfolio return is greater than the portfolio risk.

Keywords

FF3FM, ACO, investment, stock, return, risk, optimal portfolio, IDX High Dividend 20

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.46336/ijqrm.v6i2.978